Conditions for Real Estate Developers are Changing

Conditions for Real Estate Developers are Changing


Background
12.08.2020 Author/s: Ellen Heinrich
Despite Corona, work is going on at the construction sites. Hardly any real estate developer expects more delays.
Despite Corona, work is going on at the construction sites. Hardly any real estate developer expects more delays.

Demolition is out of question, according to the answers to our brief survey in April. Now we asked again. Hardly anyone now expects delays in construction and planning, but other factors have worsened.

As a supplement to the Real Estate Developer Study 2020, in April we asked a selected group of developers to give their opinion on the effects of the corona crisis on project developments. The results of the non-representative short survey: Delays in projects under construction as well as in projects with pending building permits were expected to be quite clear. In both cases, the direct effects of the lockdown were in the foreground here: interrupted or slowed supply chains, and poorly or not at all available employees or service providers, including public offices. On the other hand, project cancellations and withdrawals from development plans were not expected.

Now the conditions have changed due to the gradual lifting of the lockdown. Therefore, we asked the same people the same questions again at the beginning of July.

Although the response was somewhat lesser, the answers nevertheless paint an interesting picture. The survey revealed that the above-mentioned trends have not changed; the statements are still valid in July. With one exception - when asked whether delays in developments under construction are expected, more than 70% of those surveyed answered "yes" in April. In July, only one in eleven respondents (8 %) was still of this opinion. This is comprehensible, as the reasons for the delays are no longer given at present and in looking back, their effects have not been as harsh as initially feared.

Nevertheless, due to COVID-19, the majority of the companies are confronted with more diffcult conditions for real estate developments, at least in parts. This applies to the letting to users, sometimes also to the sale to the final investor as also to the getting of building permission and financing - this is where some of the interviewed developers see a deterioration of the conditions.

The feedback shows that structural changings will take place or already exist, although they are (still) hardly measurable. Certainly, the different segments and players will be affected to a different extent. We are currently evaluating the effects for a further, comprehensive study and will present them shortly in our blog.

Source: bulwiengesa short survey June 2020; n = 11; survey among participants in the data exchange for the project developer study 2020

About the study "The Market for Real Estate Developer in the German Class A Cities 2020"

For the 14th time, we examined the market for real estate developments in the seven German class A cities of Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt/Main, Düsseldorf, Cologne and Stuttgart. Based on more than 5,000 individual projects, the structure and volume of the real estate developer market was analyzed and evaluated city by city. The focus was on office, residential, retail and hotel uses. The complete project developer study can be purchased including extensive project lists. Here you can find further information and the video of the online press conference.

 

Contact person: Ellen Heinrich, project manager at bulwiengesa, heinrich [at] bulwiengesa.de